Method

Bitcoin State is built for people stacking Bitcoin over the long run. It gives a daily state read, not a trading system.

Each state combines three inputs: trend (200D), sentiment (Fear & Greed), and valuation (MVRV). The goal is to make the big picture quick to scan.

State Scale

DEEP DISCOUNT: Price is well below long-term trend, sentiment is weak, and valuation looks compressed.

DISCOUNT: Price is below trend with softer sentiment or valuation.

NEUTRAL: Signals are mixed and price is near trend.

PREMIUM: Price is above trend with stronger sentiment or valuation.

EXTREME PREMIUM: Price is stretched above trend with euphoric sentiment and elevated valuation.

Chart Lenses

DCA Lens

Shows price with the 200-week moving average. The chart background is colored by the same historical state logic used by the main state card.

Trend Lens

Uses price vs the 200-day moving average to show whether Bitcoin is structurally above, near, or below its medium-term trend.

Cycle Lens

Combines price vs the 2-year moving average with days since the last halving to frame the current cycle phase.

Data Sources

Price history
CryptoCompare as primary source, with CoinGecko as fallback.

Fear & Greed
Alternative.me API.

MVRV Ratio
CoinMetrics community API (CapMVRVCur) with a proxy fallback when needed.

Funding / Open Interest
Binance derivatives data with fallback logic.